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<!DOCTYPE html>

<head>

<title>World population estimates - Wikipedia</title>

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<h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading" lang="en">World population estimates</h1>

<div id="siteSub">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div>

Jump to: <a href="#mw-head">navigation</a>, <a href="#p-search">search</a>

</div>

<div id="mw-content-text" lang="en" dir="ltr" class="mw-content-ltr"><div class="mw-parser-output"><p>This article lists estimates of <a href="/wiki/World_population" title="World population">world population</a> over the course of <a href="/wiki/World_history" title="World history">history</a> and <a href="/wiki/Prehistory" title="Prehistory">prehistory</a>, as well as projections of <a href="/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth" title="Projections of population growth">future developments</a>. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the late medieval period are in the following ranges:</p>

<tr>

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<tr>

<td>population<br />

(in millions)</td>

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</table>

<p>Estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have <a href="/wiki/Confidence_interval" title="Confidence interval">confidence intervals</a>; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough idea of expert consensus can be gained by comparing the values given in independent publications. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits; for example, world population for the year 2012 was estimated at 7.02, 7.06 and 7.08 billion by the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Census_Bureau" title="United States Census Bureau">United States Census Bureau</a>, the <a href="/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau" title="Population Reference Bureau">Population Reference Bureau</a> and the <a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Department_of_Economic_and_Social_Affairs" title="United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs">United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs</a>, respectively, corresponding to a spread of estimates of the order of 0.8%.</p>

<p></p>

<h2>Contents</h2>

</div>

<ul>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="#Deep_prehistory"><span class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Deep prehistory</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-2"><a href="#Historical_population"><span class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Historical population</span></a>

<ul>

<li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-3"><a href="#Before_1950"><span class="tocnumber">2.1</span> <span class="toctext">Before 1950</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-4"><a href="#1950_to_present"><span class="tocnumber">2.2</span> <span class="toctext">1950 to present</span></a></li>

</ul>

</li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-5"><a href="#Projections"><span class="tocnumber">3</span> <span class="toctext">Projections</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-6"><a href="#By_world_region"><span class="tocnumber">4</span> <span class="toctext">By world region</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-8"><a href="#References"><span class="tocnumber">6</span> <span class="toctext">References</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-9"><a href="#Further_reading"><span class="tocnumber">7</span> <span class="toctext">Further reading</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-10"><a href="#External_links"><span class="tocnumber">8</span> <span class="toctext">External links</span></a></li>

</ul>

</div>

<p></p>

<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Deep_prehistory">Deep prehistory</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Deep prehistory">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>

<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Paleodemography" title="Paleodemography">Paleodemography</a></div>

<p>Most published estimates of historical world population begin at "<a href="/wiki/Year_zero" title="Year zero">year zero</a>" of the <a href="/wiki/Common_Era" title="Common Era">Common Era</a>, when world population was in the nine digits (estimates range between 150 and 330 million).</p>

<p>Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to "<a href="/wiki/10,000_BC" class="mw-redirect" title="10,000 BC">10,000 BC</a>", i.e. the <a href="/wiki/Last_Glacial_Maximum_refugia" title="Last Glacial Maximum refugia">last glacial maximum</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1">[1]</a></sup> when world population estimates range roughly between one and ten million.</p>

<p>Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the <a href="/wiki/Upper_Paleolithic" title="Upper Paleolithic">Upper Paleolithic</a>, are of a different nature. At this time human populations consisted entirely of non-sedentary <a href="/wiki/Hunter-gatherer" title="Hunter-gatherer">hunter-gatherer</a> populations, which fall into a number of <a href="/wiki/Archaic_Homo_sapiens" class="mw-redirect" title="Archaic Homo sapiens">archaic species or sub-species</a>, some but not all of which may be ancestral to the modern human population due to possible <a href="/wiki/Archaic_human_admixture_with_modern_humans" title="Archaic human admixture with modern humans">archaic human admixture with modern humans</a> taking place during the Upper Paleolithic. Estimates of the size of these populations are a topic of <a href="/wiki/Paleoanthropology" title="Paleoanthropology">paleoanthropology</a>. A late human <a href="/wiki/Population_bottleneck" title="Population bottleneck">population bottleneck</a> is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the <a href="/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory" title="Toba catastrophe theory">Toba catastrophe</a>, when the <i><a href="/wiki/Homo_sapiens" title="Homo sapiens">Homo sapiens</a></i> population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.<sup id="cite_ref-ambrose1998_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ambrose1998-2">[2]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-robock2009_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-robock2009-4">[4]</a></sup></p>

<p>For the time of speciation of <i><a href="/wiki/Homo_sapiens" title="Homo sapiens">Homo sapiens</a></i>, ca. 130,000 years ago, Sjödin et al. (2012) estimate an <a href="/wiki/Effective_population_size" title="Effective population size">effective population size</a> of the order of 10,000 to 30,000 individuals, inferring an actual "census population" of early <i>Homo sapiens</i> of roughly 100,000 to 300,000 individuals.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5">[5]</a></sup></p>

<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Historical_population">Historical population</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Historical population">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>

<p>The following table uses <a href="/wiki/Astronomical_year_numbering" title="Astronomical year numbering">astronomical year numbering</a> for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC (i.e. -10000 = 10,001 BC, etc.). The table starts counting around the <a href="/wiki/Late_Glacial_Maximum" class="mw-redirect" title="Late Glacial Maximum">Late Glacial Maximum</a> period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.</p>

<h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Before_1950">Before 1950</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Before 1950">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h3>

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<th><a href="/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau" title="Population Reference Bureau">Population Reference Bureau</a>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Department_of_Economic_and_Social_Affairs" title="United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs">United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs</a>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Angus_Maddison" title="Angus Maddison">Maddison</a>

</th>

<th>HYDE

<p>(2010)<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (January 2017)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></p>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/John_Tanton" title="John Tanton">Tanton</a>

</th>

<th>Biraben

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_McEvedy" title="Colin McEvedy">McEvedy</a> &

<p>Jones (1978)<sup id="cite_ref-Richard_Jones_1978_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Richard_Jones_1978-11">[11]</a></sup></p>

</th>

<th>Thomlinson

</th>

<th>Durand

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_Clark_(economist)" title="Colin Clark (economist)">Clark</a>

</th>

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<h3><span class="mw-headline" id="1950_to_present">1950 to present</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: 1950 to present">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h3>

<p>For times after <a href="/wiki/World_War_II" title="World War II">World War II</a>, demographic data of some accuracy becomes available for a significant number of countries, and population estimates are often given as grand totals of numbers (typically given by country) of widely diverging accuracies. Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding. Taking these numbers at face value would be <a href="/wiki/False_precision" title="False precision">false precision</a>; in spite of being stated to four, seven or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best.</p>

<tr>

<th><a href="/wiki/United_States_Census_Bureau" title="United States Census Bureau">United States Census Bureau</a>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau" title="Population Reference Bureau">Population Reference Bureau</a>

</th>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Angus_Maddison" title="Angus Maddison">Maddison</a>

</th>

<th>HYDE

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/John_Tanton" title="John Tanton">Tanton</a>

</th>

<th>Biraben

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_McEvedy" title="Colin McEvedy">McEvedy</a> &

<p>Jones (1978)<sup id="cite_ref-Richard_Jones_1978_11-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Richard_Jones_1978-11">[11]</a></sup></p>

</th>

<th>Thomlinson

</th>

<th>Durand

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_Clark_(economist)" title="Colin Clark (economist)">Clark</a>

</th>

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